Keeping a straight face is not enough

World Series of Poker. (Bets in poker are placed by pushing chips into the middle of the table.) The clips were 1.6 seconds long, on average, and featured different parts of the players’ anatomies. Some showed everything visible from the table up: chest, arms and head. Some showed just the face. And some showed only the arms and hands. When a player’s whole posture was considered, this misapprehension went away: if a volunteer could see everything about a player from the table up there was no correlation between his judgments of a hand’s value and its actual value. The results were the same. Students, even those who were poker novices, could judge the quality of a professional poker player’s cards from the behaviour of his hands. To find out, he showed 40 new volunteers the clips he had used in the previous experiment. There was a positive correlation of 0.15 when the students considered confidence and of 0.29 when they looked for smooth movement, so they were actually more capable of determining hand quality from these variables than when asked to estimate it directly. The moral of the story for players, then, is don’t look your opponent squarely in the eye if you want to know how good his cards are. The secret of his hand is in his hands. That's a poker game from the movie "Cool Hand Luke." Poker, of course, is a game of deception. World Series of Poker, and participants watched either just players placing bets but only their faces or they watched their whole bodies or they watched just their arms pushing chips into the center of the table. They couldn't guess accurately how good a poker hand was. They couldn't do it for their face. In fact, they're a little bit worse than chance suggesting that the facial cues players were sort of admitting were deceptive. So, it could be if you have a really good hand and you feel confident about that, you might just push the chips into the center of the table just a little bit more smoothly. I first heard about it on NPR. Since, I’ve seen it referenced in poker blogs and articles and in a few mainstream news articles. This isn’t to denigrate the work of the experiment’s designers. I think this is an interesting study, and I hope it will encourage similar studies using poker as a means to study human behavior. I do, however, think it’s a very weak general correlation and will only be practically useful if you have a player-specific behavioral baseline. I think the study is flawed, but the primary underlying reason is a common one for studies involving poker: the study’s organizers just don’t know enough about how poker works. Many bad players lose money at poker while believing that they’re good, or even great players. While the correlation found in this experiment is still interesting, it is somewhat expected that amateur players would have behavioral inconsistencies. These graphics show the likelihood of a player’s hand winning; it does this by comparing it to the other players’ known hands. Q-Q would have a 2.27% chance of winning with one card to come. According to this methodology, the player with the Q-Q would be judged as having a weak hand; if the test participants categorized that bet as representing a strong hand, they would be wrong. But according to a recent study published in the September issue of Psychological Science, players should be focusing on developing their ‘poker arms’ instead. Michael Slepian, who’s a graduate student at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts, authored the study. World Series of Poker. (Bets in poker are placed by pushing chips into the middle of the table.) The clips were 1.6 seconds long, on average, and featured different parts of the players’ anatomies. Some showed everything visible from the table up: chest, arms and head. Some showed just the face. And some showed only the arms and hands. When a player’s whole posture was considered, this misapprehension went away: if a volunteer could see everything about a player from the table up there was no correlation between his judgments of a hand’s value and its actual value. The results were the same. Students, even those who were poker novices, could judge the quality of a professional poker player’s cards from the behaviour of his hands. To find out, he showed 40 new volunteers the clips he had used in the previous experiment. There was a positive correlation of 0.15 when the students considered confidence and of 0.29 when they looked for smooth movement, so they were actually more capable of determining hand quality from these variables than when asked to estimate it directly. I have made — and called down — countless bluffs in the +$1,500 range, or even larger, without so much as a half-degree rise in temperature. If the opponent is a tourist, subtleties are a waste or even counterproductive. Don’t worry about their face. Don’t try to judge levels of stress or nervousness. These video clips were from experienced players and they were very short. It’s not obvious that the average Joe or Jane playing $1 - $2 at your local poker room will display these patterns of facial expression and arm movements. Experienced players often stare at an opponent’s face, not for two seconds, but for extended periods of time. And, of course, these results don’t tell us what the data would be like if expert poker players were the participants. I wrote for Bluff, in which I give some criticisms on the 2013 study by Michael Slepian et al at Stanford, in which they found that “smooth” betting motions were more correlated with strong hands. Cardschat. While it’s a pretty short piece, I was proud of it because I think it fits a lot of my most recent and up-to-date thoughts on poker tells into a single, brief, and cohesive article. Slepian, who’s a graduate student at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts, authored the study. And he says that college students did very well at identifying WSOP players’ hand strength when viewing two-second clips of their arms and hands.

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