Poker Math & Probability

In this lesson we’re going to give an overview of probability and how it relates to poker. For instance, a coin flip has two possible outcomes: heads or tails. For example, if you receive an Ace as your first card, only three other Aces are left among the remaining fifty-one cards. If he calls, the new pot is now $100 and his $10 call makes up 10% of the new pot.A “bad beat” happens when a player completes a hand that started out with a very low probability of success. Experts in probability understand the idea that, just because an event is highly unlikely, the low likelihood does not make it completely impossible.A measure of a player’s experience and maturity is how he handles bad beats. An out is a card which will make your hand. For example, if you are on a flush draw with four hearts in your hand, then there will be nine hearts (outs) remaining in the deck to give you a flush. Don’t fall into the trap of assuming that all your outs will help you. Some won’t, and they should be discounted from the equation. Memorize some of the common draws, such as knowing that a flush draw is 4-to-1 against or 20%. The reason this is easier is that it requires less work when calculating the pot odds, which we’ll get to in the next lesson. As a result if we called every time, we would lose $12 (3 x $4) and win $14 after 4 hands. After a while things will start to ‘click’, and you understanding of pot odds and expected value will become a lot easier. Poker is not based on pure luck, it is a game of probabilities, there are a certain number of cards in the deck and a certain probability that outcomes will occur. Calculating implied poker odds requires more skill and experience because you need a good idea of how the opponent is going to react in the future. It’s easier to calculate implied poker odds in fixed limit Hold’em since you know how much your opponents can bet. In no-limit, need to correctly predict an opponent’s bet sizes. You can also find here poker player profiles, tournament poker results, poker rules, poker strategy articles, poker books, poker magazines, poker tools and poker training resources.

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An out is a card which will make your hand. For example, if you are on a flush draw with four hearts in your hand, then there will be nine hearts (outs) remaining in the deck to give you a flush.