;@Buffett

Two years ago, Buffett teamed with Quicken Loans to offer $1 billion to anyone who picked a perfect bracket. Two billionaires are playing bridge and come up with an idea to tantalize the masses with $1 billion for a perfect bracket. Omaha billionaire chats with Cleveland billionaire who signed LeBron James later that summer and decided to run the promotion themselves, getting Internet sports site involved anyway. There are two outcomes of any given game and the first two rounds comprise 48 games, yielding 280 trillion possibilities. Buffett’s business record, that money isn’t likely going to waste—it’s an investment in morale. Great journalism has great value, and it costs money to make it. One of the main ways we cover our costs is through advertising.A quick back of the envelope calculation shows that they’re not great. There are two outcomes of any given game and the first two rounds comprise 48 games, yielding 280 trillion possibilities. Buffett’s business record, that money isn’t likely going to waste—it’s an investment in morale. Not surprisingly, nobody won, since the odds of getting all the games right were 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Buffett was concerned that if tens of millions of fans signed up, those chances would rise just a bit. Thus, he wanted Yahoo to pay him an extra premium for every additional participant after the first 10 million. SCA, in an effort to mitigate its losses, Yahoo has by necessity been forced to work with third parties as part of the “Billion-Dollar Bracket Challenge,” which was going forward with or without Yahoo’s participation. Buffett bet on the difficulty of picking the tournament. Two years ago, Berkshire insured a $1 billion prize Quicken Loans offered, but didn't have to pay because no one had a perfect bracket. The winner will have the option of taking 40 annual payments of $25 million or a lump sum of $500 million. Duke professor, came up with his 1-in-1-billion probability through an equation that placed games into categories ranging from close games that could go either way to near locks. NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament is well known for creating madness among college sports fans. Each year millions tune in to watch the games, with many fans participating in bracket challenges. To get a perfect bracket a participant would have to pick 63 games correctly (every team that doesn’t win the championship loses one game). Each game has two possible incomes: either Team A wins and Team B loses, or Team B wins and Team A loses. This makes calculating the odds of a seeded tournament nearly impossible to figure out, with estimates ranging from 1-in-5 billion to 1-in-128 billion. Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert -- another one of the richest men in America -- to award a Dr. Evil-approved $1 billion this year, should anyone submit an NCAA tournament bracket that goes flawless in their forecast for the best event in American sports. And don't make Warren hassle you and be sending reminder texts at 11:30. Nobody likes that person. Wait until next year though. I think we're going to come up with something better next year. We'll make it a lot easier to enter. There were some questions that were a little tough, I thought. Bleacher Report – Turner Sports Network, part of the Turner Sports and Entertainment Network. Certain photos copyright © 2016 Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Getty Images is strictly prohibited. We don’t count the four “play-in” games in Dayton, Ohio — if we did, your chances would be zero because Manhattan already lost to Hampton, the underdog according to the FiveThirtyEight model. For starters, it assumes that a 16-seed has no chance to beat a 1-seed, since it’s never happened before. To fill out a bracket, pick the winner of each game at random according to this probability. If we go back and generate 15 million brackets this way for 2013, we have a 1-in–4.5 billion chance of getting a perfect bracket. That’s about the same likelihood that a Kardashian has of a successful marriage, but it’s better than 1-in–128 billion. Buffett would have come closest (1-in-61,593) to paying the $1 billion in 2007. That year, Florida won its second consecutive title, and the tourney contained few upsets overall, as a team seeded two or more spots below its opponent won only four times.

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